Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
